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The 10 year minus 3 month US yield today; below 0 means inverted

What the US yield curve has signalled since 1962

Economy No. 35 29 September 2026 · 1 min read

This one is a little primer and trend analysis of the US government Treasury yields for different maturities across the years.

The yield curve shows what the government pays to borrow for different periods. Normally, longer borrowing costs more. When short-term rates are higher, the curve is inverted, often signalling an expected slowdown.

The first chart shows all 14 yields since 1962. The second tracks the 10 year yield minus the 3 month yield. Below 0 means inverted. Key takeaways:

1. All yields move together. They peaked in 1981 and bottomed out between 2008 and 2021.

2. Inversions are rare. Since 1981, the curve was inverted on only 11% of days.

3. Each of the last 4 recessions came after one. The curve inverted in 1989, 2000, 2006 and 2019, and recessions followed in 1990, 2001, 2008 and 2020.

4. The latest inversion, from October 2022 to October 2025, was the longest since 1981. No recession has come so far.

5. Back to normal is not an all clear. Today the curve slopes up again, but in 1990, 2001 and 2008, the recession came after the curve had turned back.

US government bond yields since 1962

Daily yields on US government debt, from 1 month to 30 years. Every maturity sold back then peaked in late 1981, above 15%.

Daily US Treasury yields for 14 maturities, 1 month to 30 years, January 1962 to September 2026. All peaked together in late 1981, when the 6 month bill hit 17.43%, and fell close to 0 for short maturities in 2008 and 2020. On 28 September 2026 the 3 month yields 4.28%, the 2 year 4.92%, the 10 year 5.24% and the 30 year 5.56%.

Yield, per cent a year

Sep 1981: the 6 month bill pays 17.43%

Gaps: no 20 year from 1987 to 1993, no 30 year from 2002 to 2006. The 1 month starts in 2001, 2 months in 2018, 4 months in 2022, 1.5 months in 2025.

US Treasury yield curve, via Federal Reserve H.15 (FRED) · 2 Jan 1962 to 15 Oct 2026, daily

When the US yield curve turned upside down

The 10 year yield minus the 3 month yield. Below 0 the curve is inverted, and that came before each of the last 4 recessions.

The 10 year US Treasury yield minus the 3 month yield, daily, September 1981 to September 2026, with inverted periods shaded red and US recessions lavender. The curve inverted in 1989, 2000 to 2001, 2006 to 2007 and 2019, each before a recession in 1990, 2001, 2008 and 2020. The longest inversion ran from October 2022 to October 2025, deepest at minus 1.89 points in May 2023, with no recession through August 2026. Now plus 0.96.

Percentage points

Upward sloping: above 0

Inverted: below 0

Curve invertedUS recession

Longest inversion, no recession yet

Inverted spells join dips less than 5 months apart. Recessions are the NBER's, by month. The 3 month yield starts in Sep 1981.

US Treasury yields and NBER recessions, via FRED · 1 Sep 1981 to 15 Oct 2026, daily

Sources